605 Study Guide

Module 1 Study Guide

Module 2 Study Guide

Module 3-1 Study Guide

Module 3-2 Study Guide

Module 3-3 Study Guide

DIM 605: DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

 

1. AIM OF COURSE

 

The aim of DIM 605 is to give the student an understanding of the morphology of disasters and to provide them with the necessary tools to calculate disaster risks. Application of the principles and procedures of disaster risk reduction and disaster risk is the core of this module.

 

2. WORKING PROCEDURES

 

This self-study course consists of four modules.  Module 1 provides the student with an insight into the morphology of disasters and the principles for disaster risk assessment. Module 2 introduces the student to probability theory as basis for statistical inferences as well as to qualitative risk assessment methodologies. Module 3 consists of three parts.  The assignment in Part One is compulsory. Students must choose ONE of the two assignments in Part Two and Three.

 

3. SUGGESTED STUDY PROGRAMME

 

Module 1:​Students must study the book “At Risk” by Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon and Davis (2005) to understand the different models that explain the morphology of disasters. One assignment accounting 20% of the semester mark must be submitted

 

Module 2: ​Students must study this module to obtain the knowledge needed for the analysis required by other modules.  One assignment accounting 30% of the semester mark must be submitted for this module.

 

Module 3:​Students must study the compulsory study material before doing the assignment.  One assignment accounting 50% of the semester mark must be submitted.

 

All the assignments are compulsory and should be submitted on E-Learn or as communicated in class.

 

 

4. EXAMINATION

 

The first assignment accounts for 20% of the semester mark. The second assignment 30% and the third assignment account for 50% of the semester mark. Students will also write a formal exam during November, which will contribute 50% to the final mark.

 

5. ASSESSMENT

 

- Assignments          3               40%

- Examination          1               60%

- Total                                     100%

 

To pass the course a sub-minimum of 40% must be obtained in the examination. To pass the completed course a combined average of at least 50% must be achieved.

 

The assignments will constitute 40% of the final mark. There will be a final examination at the end of the year, which will carry 60% of the total marks.

 

DIM 605

MODULE 1: MORPHOLOGY OF DISASTERS

 

1. AIM

 

The main aim of this part is to introduce the student to the morphology of disasters by means of the:

 

• The Turner model

• Model by Bohle

• DFID (1999) model

• BBC framework

• PAR framework

 

These different models aim to widen student’s scope to various disaster risk reduction strategies.

 

2. LEARNING OBJECTIVES

 

On completion of this part, students should be able to:

 

• Understand the difference between a hazard and vulnerability.

• Understand the principles of the various vulnerability models.

• Show insight into strategies to reduce disaster risks.

 

3. WORKING PROCEDURE

 

The following working procedures will be followed:

 

1) Read the book “At Risk”. (Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon and Davis, 2005)

2) The variety ISDR publications

 

4. STUDY MATERIAL

 

i. Adams J. 1995. Risk. London: UCL Press.

 

ii. Alexander, D. 1993. Natural Disasters. London: UCL Press.

 

iii. Alexander J. 2000. Confronting Catastrophe: New perspectives on Natural Disasters. New York: Oxford University Press.

 

iv. Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon and Davis. 2006. At Risk.  Routledge, New York

 

v. Mary B Anderson and Peter J Woodrow [1989](1998) Rising from the Ashes: Development Strategies in Times of Disaster. London: IT Publications.

 

vi. T R. Frankenberger, Michael Drinkwater, Daniel Maxwell, ‘Operationalizing household livelihood security: a holistic approach for addressing poverty and vulnerability’, no date, probably 2000, available at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/X9371e/x9371e12.htm

 

vii. Toolkit, ‘CARE Household Livelihood Security Assessments: a toolkit for practitioners’, 2002, prepared by TANGO International Inc, Tuscon, Arizona, for CARE USA.

 

viii. EXTRA MATERIAL –DFID model, Turner model and BBC framework (HANDOUTS)

 

 

5. ASSIGNEMENT (DiM605 - 1/3)

 

From the 3 disaster vulnerability analysis models mentioned below:

• The Turner Model

• The BBC framework

• The DFID (1999)

 

Using a hazard of your choice apply one of the models to an area of your choice to analyze the vulnerable situation of the community. Explain what risk reduction strategies could reduce the disaster risk of that situation

 

 

DIM 605

MODULE 2: PROBABILITY THEORY – THE FOUNDATIONS OF ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE

 

1. AIM

 

The main aim of this part is to introduce the student to probability theory.  Specific attention will be given to statistical concepts and statistical inference.

 

2. LEARNING OBJECTIVES

 

On completion of this part, students should be able to:

 

• Understand the difference between experimental and non experimental data.

• Know the different types of statistical variables.

• Understand the data generation process.

• Show examples of probability density functions.

• Calculate the mean of a normal population.

• Estimate the variance of a normal population.

• Predict the value of a normal random variable.

• Understand rational expectations.

 

3. WORKING PROCEDURE

 

The following working procedures will be followed:

 

3) Read Chapters 2, 3 and 4 of Griffiths, E. Hill, R C, Judge, G.G. (1993).  Learning and Practicing Econometrics.  John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  New York.

4) Read Chapter 2 of Mead, R, Curnow, R.N., Hasted, A.M. (1993).  Statistical Methods in Agriculture and Experimental Biology (Second Edition).  Chapman & Hall.  London.

5) Read Chapter 9 and 10 of Steyn, A.G.W., Smit, C.F., Du Toit, S.H.C., Strasheim, C. (1994).  Modern Statistics in Practice.  J L van Schaik.

 

4. STUDY MATERIAL

 

ix. Griffiths, E. Hill, R C, Judge, G.G. (1993).  Learning and Practicing Econometrics.  John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  New York.

x. Mead, R, Curnow, R.N., Hasted, A.M. (1993).  Statistical Methods in Agriculture and Experimental Biology (Second Edition).  Chapman & Hall.  London.

xi. Steyn, A.G.W., Smit, C.F., Du Toit, S.H.C., Strasheim, C. (1994).  Modern Statistics in Practice.  J L van Schaik

 

5. ASSIGNMENTS

 

Average age of people dying in all disasters over a period of 30 years:

 30 40 60

 80 70 30

 70 50 90

 40 60 20

 20 60 100

 60 50 10

 50 70 40

 90 40 70

 30 80 50

 80 50 60

 

1. Construct the necessary data table and graph the probability density function of the average age of people dying.

 

2. Calculate the expected age of people dying.

 

3. Calculate the standard deviation

 

4. Calculate the variance

 

5. Calculate the probability that the age of a person dying will be 55 years.

 

 

DIM 605

MODULE 3-1: ECONOMIC DIMENSION OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

 

1. AIM

 

The main aim of this part is to introduce students to the economic dimensions of disasters and disaster management.

 

2. LEARNING OBJECTIVES

 

On completion of this part, students should be able to:

 

• Understand the economic factors to be considered in disaster management.

• Understand basic economic terms and terminologies used in disaster risk reduction and disaster assessments.

• Understand the macro-economic impact of disasters.

• Determine the potential direct tangible damages of any disaster in monetary value.

 

3. WORKING PROCEDURE

 

The following working procedures will be followed:

 

- The theory of disaster economics will be discussed with students during the contact session

- Students will have to read the compulsory as well as additional learning material on disaster economics

- Students will have to submit 1 assignment with a focus on disaster economics

 

4. STUDY MATERIAL

 

1. Benson, C. and Clay, E. J., 2004. Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters. The World Bank, Washington, DC.

2. Bull, R., 1994. Disaster Economics. DMTP Training Materials, London.

3. Handbook for Estimating the Socio-economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters. ECLAC

4. Hammitt, J.K. 1989. “Adding an Economic Dimension to Risk Assessment Discussion”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71(2): 487-488.

5. Mauskopf, J.1989. “Adding an Economic Dimension to Risk Assessment Discussion”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71(2): 485-486

6. Nicholson, W. 1996. Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions, 5th edition. CHAPTER 8

 

DIM 605

MODULE 3-2: SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

 

1. AIM

 

To emphasise how a vulnerability perspective can improve risk assessment and the development of strategies to prevent and mitigate disaster risks.

 

2. LEARNING OBJECTIVES

 

• To introduce students to theory of individual/ household behaviour under uncertainty.

• To equip students with tools that will enable them to understand and assess the full economic, financial and social impacts of disasters.

• To develop an understating of the linkages between catastrophic events and livelihoods.

• To understand how individuals and social groups perceive and respond to extreme events in nature.

• To enable students to understand the importance of the socio-economic, institutional and political environment and how it may affect the adoption of effective risk reduction strategies.

• To explore the linkages between disasters, disaster management and long-term economic and social development.

• To introduce students to and show the importance of qualitative research methods in generating information crucial for managing disaster risks.

• To develop analytical tools to enable students to explore possible roles of individuals, government and the private sector in sharing disaster risks.

• To develop skills for policy analysis.

 

3. WORKING PROCEDURE

 

Students are expected to study the suggested study material for the course and any other relevant literature. The required study material will be provided apart from and additional handouts which will be handed out during the initial contact session.

Student evaluation will consists of assignments and tests covering the material presented in this part.

 

 

4. STUDY MATERIAL

 

- Burton, I, R.W. Kates and G. F. White. 1993. The Environment as Hazard, 2nd edition. The Guilford Press: New York, CHAPTER 2; CHAPTER 3; CHAPTER 4; CHAPTER 5

- Enarson, E. 1998. “Through Women’s Eyes: A Gendered Research Agenda for Disaster Social Science.” Disasters 22 (2): 157-74.

- Hammitt, J.K. 1989. “Adding an Economic Dimension to Risk Assessment Discussion”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71(2): 487-488.

- Kunrreuther, H., N. Novemsky and D. Kahneman. 2000. “Making Low Probabilities Useful.” Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA.

- Mauskopf, J.1989. “Adding an Economic Dimension to Risk Assessment Discussion”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71(2): 485-486

- Nicholson, W. 1996. Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions, 5th edition. CHAPTER 8

- Paton, D., L. Smith and J. Violanti. 2000. “Disaster response, vulnerability and resilience.” Disaster Prevention and Management 9 (3): 173-179.

- Paton, D. and D. Johnston. 2001. “Disaster and communities, vulnerability resilience and preparedness.” Disaster Prevention and Management 10 (4): 270-277.

- Smallman, C. and D. Weir. 1999. “Communication and cultural distortion during crises.” Disaster Prevention and Management 78 (1): 33-41.

- Viljoen, M.F., L.A. du Plessis, H.J. Booysen, H.L. Weepener, M. Braune, D. van Bladeren and M. Butler. 2001. Flood Damage Management aids for Integrated Sustainable Development Planning in South Africa. WRC Report No. 889/1/01 CHAPTER 3

 

FOR THE INTERESTED READER

 

- McEntire, D.A. 1999. “Issues in disaster relief:progress, perpetual problems and prospective solutions.” Disaster Prevention and Management 8 (5): 351-361.

- Mohammed, E.O. and B.A.A. Rahman. 1998. “Hazards in Africa: trends, implications and regional distribution.” Disaster Prevention and Management 7 (2): 10-112

- Quarantelli, E.L. 2001. “Statistical and conceptual problems in the study of disasters.” Disaster Prevention and Management 10 (5): 325-338.

- Robinson, L.J. and S.D. Hanson. 1996. “Social Capital and Risk Responses.” Staff Paper 96-90, Department of Agricultura Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, USA.

- Brandbury, M. 1998. “Normalising the Crisis in Africa.” Disasters 22 (4): 328-339

 

DIM 605

MODULE 3-3: ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

 

1. AIM

 

The aim of this part is to delineate the areas of the environment that could be affected by natural and human-made disasters. The specific aim is to identify the type of impacts that disasters can have on each aspect of the environment.

 

2. LEARNING OBJECTIVES

 

After the completion of this part, students should be able to:

 

i) Identify the types of disasters that can affect the environment.

ii) Determine the area of the environment (land, water, air, humans, plants and animals) that each disaster will affect and in what manner.

iii) Estimate the nature and magnitude of the impact of the disaster on each sector of the environment.

 

3. WORKING PROCEDURE

 

i) Students should identify the types of natural disasters and be able to group them into natural and human-made categories. Some possible disasters which by no means exhaust all the list of disasters include the following:

• Oil spill

• Fire

• Disease epidemic

• Flood

• Drought

• Wars

• Earthquake/Hurricane

 

ii) The parts of the environment that are likely to be affected by any disaster should be identified and matched with the relevant disasters. The aspects of the environment that can be predisposed to disasters include the following:

 

• Land

• Air

• Water

• Humans

• Plants

• Animals

 

iii) The nature of the impact of identified disaster on relevant areas of the environment should be analysed with a view to prescribing prevention and mitigation measures.

 

4. STUDY MATERIAL

 

Compulsory Reading:

 

I) Sven-Olof Ryding (1992). Environmental Management handbook. The holistic approach-from problems to strategies, Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, Florida:

- Chapter 4 – Ecological Effects

- Chapter 5 – Remedial Actions – Emphasis on developing countries.

 

Required Reading:

 

Owen and Unwin (Eds). Environmental Management: Readings and Case Studies. Blackwell Publishers, Oxford, Malden 492 p:

- Part I – Managing the biosphere, Sections 1 &2

- Part II – Predicting and managing atmospheric change, Sections 6, 7, 8, 11 &12

- Part III – Reducing land degradation, Sections 13, 14 &15

- Part IV – Managing water resources, Sections 18, 20, 22, 23 & 24.

 

Miller, Tyler G. (2002). Living in the Environment: Principles, Connections and Solutions. Twelfth Edition. Jack Charley Publishers, 758 p.

- Part VI – Environment and the Society

 

Supplementary Readings:

 

Students should use their knowledge of web-search to access relevant topics on impact of disasters on the environment from the Internet to supplement the above referenced readings.

 

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